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Published by Programme B
Sports betting has been a favourite form of entertainment for decades. Whether you’re an experienced punter or an amateur, there are many different betting opportunities available. However, you should approach your sports betting efforts like a business transaction. It means making sure you have all the information and the best possible position before committing.
Whether you’re looking at the Vegas NFL odds on BetUS or other matches online, you must understand your real chances. That’s where value betting comes in.
What’s Value Betting?
Value betting refers to when a bet’s given probability doesn’t reflect the true state of things. The term is generally used when an event’s probability of occurring is less than it should be. If you can identify a value bet and manage to bet using it, you stand a chance to make a bigger return than you otherwise would.
With value betting, you have odds that aren’t accurate for a match, meaning you can earn bigger returns by taking advantage of the gap between those odds and the actual outcome. An example will be if the underdog has much higher odds since their chances of winning were predicted to be small when they actually have a good chance of winning.
When betting on the underdogs, you would’ve bet on high odds with a massive return, but without the risk of them losing, as they have a high chance to win.
How Value Occurs
However, how does value in sports betting occur? It seems unlikely that bookmakers will make a mistake like giving high odds to the underdog if they have a good chance of winning. Generally, when a value bet occurs, it’s because new information came to light that impacted the game’s outcome.
An example would be if the favourite team’s star player became injured right before the game or if the line-up for the match was revealed and more than half of the players were debut players. In this case, there’s a gap in the market where the odds still reflect the previous probability of the favourites winning. Punters who act quick enough can make use of this gap before the bookmakers get a chance to adjust the odds.
Making Use of Value When Betting
Keeping an eye on the betting market and the game circumstances is critical. If you know what the odds are and something happens that influences the match’s probability, you can act on it before the odds change. When you make a value bet, you’ll receive more value on the bet than normal, as the odds don’t reflect the current probability of the match’s outcome.